Sunday, April 25, 2010

Troy Tulowitzki and the String of Causation

To read baseball statistics, one must see which statistics are directly derived from others and figure out how the string works. An example so far is Troy Tulowitzki. Not off to an incredible start and the direct reason is his decrease in BB%, from a career line of 9.5% to 5.1%, sure it's a small sample size but small sample sizes have reasons as well. He hasn't been able to draw a walk for his life in the first three weeks and it's the direct reason why he hasn't been hitting the ball like Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp. Tulowitzki comes from a great background being a first round pick out of the baseball-prestigious Long Beach State University, he routinely gets off to cold starts and it's probably just because he takes longer than other players to adjust to the in-game velocity, it's not the worst thing ever though considering he makes up for it in the latter months when some consider the game to mean even more. Ryan Braun put up 32 home runs last year while stealing 20 bases with a .386 OBP, so did Tulowitzki except for those pesky nine points missing on the OBP.

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